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Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction

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Varies, see individual formats and editions
Pub. Date:
Varies, see individual formats and editions
Language:
English
Description
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
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ISBN:
9780804136716
9780804136709
9780804136693
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Grouping Information

Grouped Work ID339f4d33-9b74-56ba-46af-9b85901a6990
Grouping Titlesuperforecasting the art and science of prediction
Grouping Authorphilip e tetlock
Grouping Categorybook
Grouping LanguageEnglish (eng)
Last Grouping Update2022-06-24 04:07:48AM
Last Indexed2022-06-24 04:48:11AM

Solr Fields

accelerated_reader_point_value
0
accelerated_reader_reading_level
0
auth_author2
Gardner, Dan, 1968-
author
Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson), 1954-
author2-role
Gardner, Dan,1968-author
author_display
Tetlock, Philip E.
available_at_aacpl
Busch Annapolis Library
collection_aacpl
ADULT
detailed_location_aacpl
Busch Annapolis Library - Nonfiction
Online OverDrive Collection
display_description
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
format_aacpl
Book
eBook
format_category_aacpl
Books
eBook
id
339f4d33-9b74-56ba-46af-9b85901a6990
isbn
9780804136693
9780804136709
9780804136716
itype_aacpl
Adult Nonfiction
last_indexed
2022-06-24T08:48:11.051Z
lexile_score
-1
literary_form
Non Fiction
literary_form_full
Non Fiction
local_callnumber_aacpl
303.49 T
Online OverDrive
owning_library_aacpl
Anne Arundel County Public Library
Anne Arundel County Public Library Online
owning_location_aacpl
Busch Annapolis Library
Online OverDrive Collection
primary_isbn
9780804136716
publishDate
2015
publisher
Crown
Crown Publishers
recordtype
grouped_work
subject_facet
Economic forecasting
Forecasting
title_display
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction
title_full
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction
title_short
Superforecasting
title_sub
the art and science of prediction
topic_facet
Business
Economic forecasting
Forecasting
Nonfiction
Psychology
Sociology

Solr Details Tables

item_details

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overdrive:1e2d67d5-a7cc-4572-8913-9b5c9aba0a0b1Online OverDrive CollectionOnline OverDriveeBookeBook1falsetrueOverDriveAdobe EPUB eBook, Kindle Book, OverDrive ReadChecked Out
ils:a122736131997094047420Busch Annapolis Library - Nonfiction303.49 T1falsefalseOn ShelfApr 06, 2022ANN

record_details

Bib IdFormatFormat CategoryEditionLanguagePublisherPublication DatePhysical DescriptionAbridged
overdrive:1e2d67d5-a7cc-4572-8913-9b5c9aba0a0beBookeBookEnglishCrown2015
ils:a1227361BookBooksFirst editionEnglishCrown Publishers[2015]340 p. ; 25 cm

scoping_details_aacpl

Bib IdItem IdGrouped StatusStatusLocally OwnedAvailableHoldableBookableIn Library Use OnlyLibrary OwnedHoldable PTypesBookable PTypesLocal Url
overdrive:1e2d67d5-a7cc-4572-8913-9b5c9aba0a0b1Checked OutChecked Outfalsefalsetruefalsefalsetrue
ils:a122736131997094047420On ShelfOn Shelffalsetruetruefalsefalsetrue